http://www.fx360.com/techAnalysis/3053/pm-analysis.aspx
Site ini beri signal PERCUMA dan Recomended Trades untuk kita guna pakai jika nak
Hebat jugak, tapi signal selalu jugak tak tepat. Kita perlu buat analisis and search sendiri.
Khamis, 25 Mac 2010
Tentang Swing Highs and Lows dr Mr Strat FF
Dave, many people get swings wrong because they are not using CONFIRMED swings. Unless a swing is CONFIRMED it is not valid and is about as much use as a crack in a glass eye!
To answer your questions:
“”I see three possibilities for confirmation here;
1) Marked candle has a higher high and has closed lower than the previous bullish bar or,
2) Price breaks below the marked bar's low or,
3) Price breaks below the last bullish bar's low since the swing high””.
Unless my eyesight is failing me, Dave, your 1) statement is incorrect because (i) it is neither lower or (ii) closed lower than the prior bar.
At the end of that week that your marked candle closed, it was an UNCONFIRMED swing high.
For confirmation of a swing, the OPPOSITE end of the candle must be taken out (exceeded). So, for a CONFIRMED swing high, the highest candle must have its LOW taken out and Vicky Verka for a CONFIRMED swing low.
Therefore, your marked candle is CONFIRMED as a swing high the following week when it’s LOW is taken out.
See also attached examples
“”Should you wait until the swing high is confirmed on the weekly chart before you look for a shooting star or other entry candle on the daily chart?””
Remember that although the higher time frames determine the direction of the lower time frames, they lag at turning points. This is because the lower time frames are faster and therefore respond faster.
If you do what you suggest above then you are trading the BOSS chart and not the Worker.
When you see a classic shooting star at resistance as you show in your EURAUD Worker chart with a bearish BOSS then, providing everything else is equal and you are not trading into an immediate area of strong support, you would place a sell order below the low of the Worker shooting star.
“”Would this SS be considered a bond candle because there had not been confirmation yet, therefore would have been a low probability trade? Or would this have appeared to be a likely winner at the time because it appeared near a resistance area and worth trying to get in before confirmation by the weekly?””
Maybe you need to read again what happened to my mate Bond – he thought he had pulled a gorgeous chick but when he got down to the nitty gritty, he found the meat and two veg – in other words, a “she male”. So, a Bond candle is something it is not and is trying to “fool” you.
It can be a correctly proportioned candle but nowhere near S&R or, it can be an incorrectly proportioned candle at S&R or any combination of both.
In your example, the shooting star is correctly proportioned, the open of the candle was at resistance, the close was not only below the prior candle but also within the body of the candle before that. The wick of the shooting star is also rejected by resistance. As if that wasn’t enough, the shooting star was also a BEOB! This was a trade to die for!
Don’t get confused with how to use the BOSS to trade the Worker. The BOSS gives us our direction and sentiment – the Worker gives us our timing. When you see the BOSS signaling an opportunity, start looking at the Worker for PASR to trade in the direction of the BOSS.
Also, don’t waste your time looking at Worker pairs when their BOSS is not signaling an opportunity – this is a sure way to losing trades.
If you are still confused, ask more questions – we’ll get you there!
To answer your questions:
“”I see three possibilities for confirmation here;
1) Marked candle has a higher high and has closed lower than the previous bullish bar or,
2) Price breaks below the marked bar's low or,
3) Price breaks below the last bullish bar's low since the swing high””.
Unless my eyesight is failing me, Dave, your 1) statement is incorrect because (i) it is neither lower or (ii) closed lower than the prior bar.
At the end of that week that your marked candle closed, it was an UNCONFIRMED swing high.
For confirmation of a swing, the OPPOSITE end of the candle must be taken out (exceeded). So, for a CONFIRMED swing high, the highest candle must have its LOW taken out and Vicky Verka for a CONFIRMED swing low.
Therefore, your marked candle is CONFIRMED as a swing high the following week when it’s LOW is taken out.
See also attached examples
“”Should you wait until the swing high is confirmed on the weekly chart before you look for a shooting star or other entry candle on the daily chart?””
Remember that although the higher time frames determine the direction of the lower time frames, they lag at turning points. This is because the lower time frames are faster and therefore respond faster.
If you do what you suggest above then you are trading the BOSS chart and not the Worker.
When you see a classic shooting star at resistance as you show in your EURAUD Worker chart with a bearish BOSS then, providing everything else is equal and you are not trading into an immediate area of strong support, you would place a sell order below the low of the Worker shooting star.
“”Would this SS be considered a bond candle because there had not been confirmation yet, therefore would have been a low probability trade? Or would this have appeared to be a likely winner at the time because it appeared near a resistance area and worth trying to get in before confirmation by the weekly?””
Maybe you need to read again what happened to my mate Bond – he thought he had pulled a gorgeous chick but when he got down to the nitty gritty, he found the meat and two veg – in other words, a “she male”. So, a Bond candle is something it is not and is trying to “fool” you.
It can be a correctly proportioned candle but nowhere near S&R or, it can be an incorrectly proportioned candle at S&R or any combination of both.
In your example, the shooting star is correctly proportioned, the open of the candle was at resistance, the close was not only below the prior candle but also within the body of the candle before that. The wick of the shooting star is also rejected by resistance. As if that wasn’t enough, the shooting star was also a BEOB! This was a trade to die for!
Don’t get confused with how to use the BOSS to trade the Worker. The BOSS gives us our direction and sentiment – the Worker gives us our timing. When you see the BOSS signaling an opportunity, start looking at the Worker for PASR to trade in the direction of the BOSS.
Also, don’t waste your time looking at Worker pairs when their BOSS is not signaling an opportunity – this is a sure way to losing trades.
If you are still confused, ask more questions – we’ll get you there!
Tentang LOT Size
Another of my posts:
Hey Spitfire,
I hope I'm not flogging a dead horse but from my post #1532 I wrote about how reducing my lot size from $10/pip to $1/pip removed my fear of losing.
It's those gremlins, demons, inside all of us that want us to make a killing to better our standard of living. By following the gremlins and demons we trade $10/pip hoping to get $1000 from a 100 pip move. Unless we have a $50,000+ account, this is way too much for our "real and logical" emotions to handle when the trade turns into a 40 or 50 pip loss.
We have to fight those gremlins and demons and not let them interfere with our logical and "real world" thinking. As others have said, drop down to a $/pip level that is comfortable for you to accept WHEN YOU LOSE. The trick is to base it on LOSING and not WINNING. Forget about thinking how much you will win and instead focus on how much you will lose. Doing this controls your losses and you will find the winners just take care of themselves.
I was told this a long time ago and rejected it - it's taken me 9 or so years (and many $thousands lost) to finally realise and accept this and put it into practice. After doing this, I was finally able to treat my trading as a business - some you win, some you lose and after a loser, just quietly move on to the next trade.
Also, with a lower $/pip, you can put on multiple trades. Bank a third after say 20 pips and move the rest to break-even. This way you make 20 pips no matter what the rest do. If all goes well, bank another third after say 50 pips and then trail the final third.
Don't be an idiot like me, Spitfire, and wait 9 or so years, DO IT NOW!
Hope this helps.
Rock n Roll,
Strat
Hey Spitfire,
I hope I'm not flogging a dead horse but from my post #1532 I wrote about how reducing my lot size from $10/pip to $1/pip removed my fear of losing.
It's those gremlins, demons, inside all of us that want us to make a killing to better our standard of living. By following the gremlins and demons we trade $10/pip hoping to get $1000 from a 100 pip move. Unless we have a $50,000+ account, this is way too much for our "real and logical" emotions to handle when the trade turns into a 40 or 50 pip loss.
We have to fight those gremlins and demons and not let them interfere with our logical and "real world" thinking. As others have said, drop down to a $/pip level that is comfortable for you to accept WHEN YOU LOSE. The trick is to base it on LOSING and not WINNING. Forget about thinking how much you will win and instead focus on how much you will lose. Doing this controls your losses and you will find the winners just take care of themselves.
I was told this a long time ago and rejected it - it's taken me 9 or so years (and many $thousands lost) to finally realise and accept this and put it into practice. After doing this, I was finally able to treat my trading as a business - some you win, some you lose and after a loser, just quietly move on to the next trade.
Also, with a lower $/pip, you can put on multiple trades. Bank a third after say 20 pips and move the rest to break-even. This way you make 20 pips no matter what the rest do. If all goes well, bank another third after say 50 pips and then trail the final third.
Don't be an idiot like me, Spitfire, and wait 9 or so years, DO IT NOW!
Hope this helps.
Rock n Roll,
Strat
Pendekatan Mr Strat FF Dlm Tradings... Ambil Perhatian
AUDUSD:
Weekly:
Made a higher low at major support but still has some downward momentum left over from the last down cycle. The retrace could only manage 32.8% and with the 20 paralleling below the 50 it is telling us there are still lower prices ahead. This week's higher volume suggests a shot at major resistance at 0.6700 with a possibility to maybe touch 0.6850 but it's really more bearish than bullish.
Daily:
At minor support and it's bottom trend line. This is the 4th time testing this bottom trend line so let's see if the Rule of 4 comes into play. Also trapped in a triangle with the trend line from the recent highs so there is a breakout coming somewhere. Price, volume, cycles and momentum say to me that it will bounce back up to the trend line at 0.6570ish before making another attack on it's base line. Too congested and not enough potential for me to trade.
CHFJPY:
Weekly:
In a strong upward cycle but bouncing off major resistance at 84.90. Volume, cycles and momentum look good for a push up to next major resistance at 88.00ish which also coincides with the 38.2% Fib retrace. Although the 20 is still below the 50, this week saw a strong close above the 20 so that is suggesting higher prices.
Daily:
Don't be fooled by yesterday's shooting star or today's hammer - the cycle and upward momentum is still very strong and with the lower volume on these two bars, it suggests profit taking to me. This high is at Fib resistance, major and minor resistance at 85ish so if it clears this we have a good run up to 85.60 and 87.30. The 20 has crossed above the 50 suggesting higher prices ahead confirmed by a cross above the Weekly 20. I'm looking for a minor retrace to go long again.
EURGBP:
Weekly:
In a down cycle with good downward momentum although it stopped dead in it's tracks at major support and the 20 at 0.8760ish with confluence of the 50% Fib retrace. The 20 is above the 50 and both are looking up at the heavens. No brainer here - my one legged blind man knows what to do!
Daily:
Bouncing off minor resistance at 0.8980ish in a corrective down cycle within the bigger up cycle. The 20 which is just below the 50 is also providing immediate resistance but we have two tests of support from the bottom trend line. On this alone, it could waffle about between the 20 and 50 but I'm looking for the Weekly to win out and maybe push it up to the down trend line at 0.9050ish
Lost my data feed so more later
Rock n Roll,
Strat
Weekly:
Made a higher low at major support but still has some downward momentum left over from the last down cycle. The retrace could only manage 32.8% and with the 20 paralleling below the 50 it is telling us there are still lower prices ahead. This week's higher volume suggests a shot at major resistance at 0.6700 with a possibility to maybe touch 0.6850 but it's really more bearish than bullish.
Daily:
At minor support and it's bottom trend line. This is the 4th time testing this bottom trend line so let's see if the Rule of 4 comes into play. Also trapped in a triangle with the trend line from the recent highs so there is a breakout coming somewhere. Price, volume, cycles and momentum say to me that it will bounce back up to the trend line at 0.6570ish before making another attack on it's base line. Too congested and not enough potential for me to trade.
CHFJPY:
Weekly:
In a strong upward cycle but bouncing off major resistance at 84.90. Volume, cycles and momentum look good for a push up to next major resistance at 88.00ish which also coincides with the 38.2% Fib retrace. Although the 20 is still below the 50, this week saw a strong close above the 20 so that is suggesting higher prices.
Daily:
Don't be fooled by yesterday's shooting star or today's hammer - the cycle and upward momentum is still very strong and with the lower volume on these two bars, it suggests profit taking to me. This high is at Fib resistance, major and minor resistance at 85ish so if it clears this we have a good run up to 85.60 and 87.30. The 20 has crossed above the 50 suggesting higher prices ahead confirmed by a cross above the Weekly 20. I'm looking for a minor retrace to go long again.
EURGBP:
Weekly:
In a down cycle with good downward momentum although it stopped dead in it's tracks at major support and the 20 at 0.8760ish with confluence of the 50% Fib retrace. The 20 is above the 50 and both are looking up at the heavens. No brainer here - my one legged blind man knows what to do!
Daily:
Bouncing off minor resistance at 0.8980ish in a corrective down cycle within the bigger up cycle. The 20 which is just below the 50 is also providing immediate resistance but we have two tests of support from the bottom trend line. On this alone, it could waffle about between the 20 and 50 but I'm looking for the Weekly to win out and maybe push it up to the down trend line at 0.9050ish
Lost my data feed so more later
Rock n Roll,
Strat
Peringatan Sangat Penting dr Mr Strat FF
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=155459
INDEX TO THIS THREAD
http://sites.google.com/site/stratstrading/
On the above, there are actually two Indexes. The first link on the words "INDEX TO THIS THREAD" is the original Index started early in the life of the thread. The second link is a later one to continue where the original ended. The reader should check both Indexes for complete information.
***********************************************************
This whole thread IS The Path of Learning.
The Path of Learning takes you through the following progression:
The very first thing we have to do is learn basic PASR. This involves learning and UNDERSTANDING exactly what PASR is.
We then have to learn how to IDENTIFY accurate SR levels to SUIT our particular trading style.
We then have to learn the basic price reversal candles – Hammer, Shooting Star, BUOB, BUEB, BEOB and BEEB, nothing else. At this point we have to learn the classical definitions of these candles. Do NOT think about or study other candles or patterns as they are NOT reliable and/or consistent for PASR trading.
We then put this all together to do SIMPLE yet very profitable trading:
Trade from support to 1st resistance and resistance to 1st support.
At this stage, you would “paper” trade or demo trade to exercise the technical content i.e., make sure your understanding of basic PASR is correct.
Doing this will bring up many doubts on SR levels and candle types etc. This is part of learning and a stage where every doubt and question must be resolved. How long this takes is up to the individual but there is NO time constraint – you learn within your own time frame.
When you have a very high success rate of doing this, you move in to REAL trading. You open an account with REAL money and trade the smallest lot size your broker offers.
This will OPEN a whole new world of “little men in your head”, “the man in the mirror” and “gremlins and demons” in you. You will learn the importance of a believed, trusted and accepted PLAN. You will go through grief and pain UNTIL you learn to CONTROL your emotions.
Again, how long it takes to master and control your emotions is up to the individual. You will continue to trade until you get to the point that you feel you can “walk on water”. Despite anything written on here, you will go through this emotion and do it. After you have been eaten up, chewed and spat out in little pieces you will learn that you are NEVER in CONTROL of your emotions and you ALWAYS have to be ON GUARD.
As you continue to trade in this manner, things that were difficult to see will become clearer and more obvious.
We will move from trading classical candle shapes, sizes and patterns to “SEEING” who and what is behind the candles, groups of candles, waves of candles etc.
We will learn to recognize market behaviour by eyeballing a chart rather than in depth analysis of a chart.
In short, we will be developing our “feel” for the market. This is a very, very personal attribute. Some get it early, for some it seems to take forever while for others, they NEVER get it.
At this point, we move into other strategies and techniques.
*********************************** ***********************************
Support & Resistance Levels – Recognition & Identification
See Posts #7738, #7739, #7740, #7741, #7743 and #7744
*****************************
CONFIRMED swing highs and lows - Explanation
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=4483">http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=4483
*************************
Example of a Student’s stress free trade
Here is a stress free example, by a Student, of trading from Resistance to 1st Support
Post #8664
**********************************
Strat's Mantra:
We TRADE TO LIVE. We are NOT like others who LIVE TO TRADE.
We know that our Health is ALWAYS more important than our wealth.
We know trading is NOT a "Get Rich Quick Scheme".
We know trading is a serious business and WE treat our trading as a SERIOUS BUSINESS
We understand we have, like any other profession, to put in the thousands of hours studying, learning and practicing our methods and techniques.
We understand there is NO SHORTCUT to becoming successful and profitable traders.
We understand that successful and profitable trading is 95% psychology and 5% technical skill. We know who and what we have to control.
We need PATIENCE to wait for and "SEE" opportunities
We need DISCIPLINE to act and trade on such opportunities
We are PLANNERS – We always PLAN each and every trade and then Trade the PLAN without exception.
We are BELIEVERS. We believe in ourselves and our PLAN.
We are happy, content and satisfied with where we are in our trading career.
We believe in the Holy Grail. We know what the Holy Grail is. We have found the Holy Grail and our search for trading enlightenment is over.
We can only take what the market gives us - we do "NOT" force the market.
We respect PRICE and the Market.
We understand that PRICE is Lord, King, Queen and Country.
We ACCEPT losses as the cost of doing business
We are PROFESSIONALS and PROFESSIONALS look for a reason NOT to take a trade
We are NOT Amateurs. Amateurs manage money by taking RISK. PROFESSIONALS manage RISK by taking money.
****************************
My story begins here:
At the request of traders on other Forums, I have been asked to start a thread on my style and method of trading the longer term time frames, i.e., the Daily and up.
This is my 17th year of "serious" trading having traded everything that you can hold, eat, smell, taste and grow. I started out on the Daily time frame, blew numerous accounts and over $200K. I have bought books, videos, tapes, dvds, systems, black boxes, and paid stupid, stupid money to attend seminars by those famous $million traders.
I am a degreed mechanical engineer by profession so I love technical analysis and spent hours, days, months and years modifying and developing indicators and devising my own systems. The dawn of realisation hit me several years ago when I realised all I was doing was re-living history. At about the same time, I came across a few professional traders and ex - floor traders and thought this was my golden opportunity to learn THE SECRET. Well it was - but not what I expected!
Far from having super - dooper highly fandangled systems, I learned all they had was their EYES and EARS! No fancy squiggly lines for them - if it went up, they bought; if it went down they sold. Every single one of them told me the same thing - TRADING IS SIMPLE, DON'T COMPLICATE IT.
So, apart from a few "home grown" indicators which I use to try to track cycles , I trade what the market tells me.
After having success on the Daily and Weekly time frames, I decided I needed something to do during the day, so I thought I will do the same thing but on M5 time frame. Wow, I couldn't do it. Everything was just moving too fast for me, the wheels between my ears couldn't keep up!
I then stumbled across some professional traders who left their jobs and set up on their own and published their strategy on another forum. I eventually got M5 and M15 to work for me but it was so stressful. After spending all day watching the one eyed monster for a measly 100 pips or so, I felt so mentally and emotionally drained that I couldn't sleep well at night. Then as my health deteriorated, so did my profits.
Again, another moment of realisation for me - I'm not suited for anything faster than trading the Daily. I practiced and trained myself on the Daily and up and that is where I belong.
I will post my analysis and trades here for anyone who is interested and hopefully share further insight with like minded traders.
I will apologise right now for my weird sense of humour but I need balance in my life and I know no better way than having a good laugh - usually at my own expense! I celebrated my 3rd 20th birthday last June but usually feel like a 16 year old! (Anyone know where I can get a 16 year old?)
I was a lead guitarist in a group back in England in the early 60s playing Buddy Holly, Chuck Berry, Roy Orbison and Elvis plus all the other stuff. I made it through the Holly inspired British rock n roll era until Jimi Hendrix came on the scene playing scales I couldn't even pronounce let alone play! (Pentatonic, Lydian, Mixolydian, Aeolian, Locrian, Dorian etc.). At that point me and my 57 Telecaster and 59 Stratocaster decided to call it a day!
I will start this off with my last post on a previous forum:
Originally Posted by Stuart14
Strat, do you like USD:CHF going lower longer term?
Feb 20th as reversal day, with stops above the high?
Entry below the low of the day before?
USDCHF:
Both technically and fundamentally, USDCHF is looking for direction from EURUSD.
Here is what we know technically:
Weekly:
In a corrective up move within the larger, dominant down move. This correction is now losing momentum having been rejected by Fib resistance.
The 20 continues to move in parallel above the 50 telling us to expect higher prices.
Daily:
We have a swing top in place on Feb 20 and now in a down cycle. Prices are in a corrective up cycle within the down cycle trying to re - test the swing high, however, momentum is non - existent. Again, the swing high is at final Fib resistance.
The 20 is above the 50 telling us to expect higher prices but they are converging.
There is major support at 1.1400 which, so far, is being successful in rejecting the downward attack.
What's next?
Who knows? I certainly don't.
A possible scenario is that when both the Weekly and Daily down cycles are in harmony, we may see a retrace down to their respective 38.2% Fib retracements before making a push to newer highs.
Now throw in a splash of funny mentals which are saying "we are in a world financial crisis, what shall I do with my money?" The answer, by the majority of actions, is to go to cash. "But which currency I hear you say?" GBP is teetering on the edge of the cliff with EUR a couple of steps behind. JPY is being whored by BOJ and CHF, although backed by gold, is being overlooked by the big boys so what is left? Well Japan and China are buying US$ which is still the World currency and backed by the World's largest economy (printing press) so that's the situation right now.
So how to trade USDCHF? - don't (at least not until we have clear direction).
Most currencies are in some sort of daily consolidation/ranging phase right now which is when the Pros put their hands on their wallets and the novices/amateurs use theirs like monopoly money.
Wait for the right opportunity - it is already being set up somewhere - our job is to find out where, when and which one, but it is there.
Me, I'm taking the strings off my 59 Strat to see why they are rattling on the frets so I think I'll give her a good going over.
Rock n Roll,
Strat
INDEX TO THIS THREAD
http://sites.google.com/site/stratstrading/
On the above, there are actually two Indexes. The first link on the words "INDEX TO THIS THREAD" is the original Index started early in the life of the thread. The second link is a later one to continue where the original ended. The reader should check both Indexes for complete information.
***********************************************************
This whole thread IS The Path of Learning.
The Path of Learning takes you through the following progression:
The very first thing we have to do is learn basic PASR. This involves learning and UNDERSTANDING exactly what PASR is.
We then have to learn how to IDENTIFY accurate SR levels to SUIT our particular trading style.
We then have to learn the basic price reversal candles – Hammer, Shooting Star, BUOB, BUEB, BEOB and BEEB, nothing else. At this point we have to learn the classical definitions of these candles. Do NOT think about or study other candles or patterns as they are NOT reliable and/or consistent for PASR trading.
We then put this all together to do SIMPLE yet very profitable trading:
Trade from support to 1st resistance and resistance to 1st support.
At this stage, you would “paper” trade or demo trade to exercise the technical content i.e., make sure your understanding of basic PASR is correct.
Doing this will bring up many doubts on SR levels and candle types etc. This is part of learning and a stage where every doubt and question must be resolved. How long this takes is up to the individual but there is NO time constraint – you learn within your own time frame.
When you have a very high success rate of doing this, you move in to REAL trading. You open an account with REAL money and trade the smallest lot size your broker offers.
This will OPEN a whole new world of “little men in your head”, “the man in the mirror” and “gremlins and demons” in you. You will learn the importance of a believed, trusted and accepted PLAN. You will go through grief and pain UNTIL you learn to CONTROL your emotions.
Again, how long it takes to master and control your emotions is up to the individual. You will continue to trade until you get to the point that you feel you can “walk on water”. Despite anything written on here, you will go through this emotion and do it. After you have been eaten up, chewed and spat out in little pieces you will learn that you are NEVER in CONTROL of your emotions and you ALWAYS have to be ON GUARD.
As you continue to trade in this manner, things that were difficult to see will become clearer and more obvious.
We will move from trading classical candle shapes, sizes and patterns to “SEEING” who and what is behind the candles, groups of candles, waves of candles etc.
We will learn to recognize market behaviour by eyeballing a chart rather than in depth analysis of a chart.
In short, we will be developing our “feel” for the market. This is a very, very personal attribute. Some get it early, for some it seems to take forever while for others, they NEVER get it.
At this point, we move into other strategies and techniques.
*********************************** ***********************************
Support & Resistance Levels – Recognition & Identification
See Posts #7738, #7739, #7740, #7741, #7743 and #7744
*****************************
CONFIRMED swing highs and lows - Explanation
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=4483">http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=4483
*************************
Example of a Student’s stress free trade
Here is a stress free example, by a Student, of trading from Resistance to 1st Support
Post #8664
**********************************
Strat's Mantra:
We TRADE TO LIVE. We are NOT like others who LIVE TO TRADE.
We know that our Health is ALWAYS more important than our wealth.
We know trading is NOT a "Get Rich Quick Scheme".
We know trading is a serious business and WE treat our trading as a SERIOUS BUSINESS
We understand we have, like any other profession, to put in the thousands of hours studying, learning and practicing our methods and techniques.
We understand there is NO SHORTCUT to becoming successful and profitable traders.
We understand that successful and profitable trading is 95% psychology and 5% technical skill. We know who and what we have to control.
We need PATIENCE to wait for and "SEE" opportunities
We need DISCIPLINE to act and trade on such opportunities
We are PLANNERS – We always PLAN each and every trade and then Trade the PLAN without exception.
We are BELIEVERS. We believe in ourselves and our PLAN.
We are happy, content and satisfied with where we are in our trading career.
We believe in the Holy Grail. We know what the Holy Grail is. We have found the Holy Grail and our search for trading enlightenment is over.
We can only take what the market gives us - we do "NOT" force the market.
We respect PRICE and the Market.
We understand that PRICE is Lord, King, Queen and Country.
We ACCEPT losses as the cost of doing business
We are PROFESSIONALS and PROFESSIONALS look for a reason NOT to take a trade
We are NOT Amateurs. Amateurs manage money by taking RISK. PROFESSIONALS manage RISK by taking money.
****************************
My story begins here:
At the request of traders on other Forums, I have been asked to start a thread on my style and method of trading the longer term time frames, i.e., the Daily and up.
This is my 17th year of "serious" trading having traded everything that you can hold, eat, smell, taste and grow. I started out on the Daily time frame, blew numerous accounts and over $200K. I have bought books, videos, tapes, dvds, systems, black boxes, and paid stupid, stupid money to attend seminars by those famous $million traders.
I am a degreed mechanical engineer by profession so I love technical analysis and spent hours, days, months and years modifying and developing indicators and devising my own systems. The dawn of realisation hit me several years ago when I realised all I was doing was re-living history. At about the same time, I came across a few professional traders and ex - floor traders and thought this was my golden opportunity to learn THE SECRET. Well it was - but not what I expected!
Far from having super - dooper highly fandangled systems, I learned all they had was their EYES and EARS! No fancy squiggly lines for them - if it went up, they bought; if it went down they sold. Every single one of them told me the same thing - TRADING IS SIMPLE, DON'T COMPLICATE IT.
So, apart from a few "home grown" indicators which I use to try to track cycles , I trade what the market tells me.
After having success on the Daily and Weekly time frames, I decided I needed something to do during the day, so I thought I will do the same thing but on M5 time frame. Wow, I couldn't do it. Everything was just moving too fast for me, the wheels between my ears couldn't keep up!
I then stumbled across some professional traders who left their jobs and set up on their own and published their strategy on another forum. I eventually got M5 and M15 to work for me but it was so stressful. After spending all day watching the one eyed monster for a measly 100 pips or so, I felt so mentally and emotionally drained that I couldn't sleep well at night. Then as my health deteriorated, so did my profits.
Again, another moment of realisation for me - I'm not suited for anything faster than trading the Daily. I practiced and trained myself on the Daily and up and that is where I belong.
I will post my analysis and trades here for anyone who is interested and hopefully share further insight with like minded traders.
I will apologise right now for my weird sense of humour but I need balance in my life and I know no better way than having a good laugh - usually at my own expense! I celebrated my 3rd 20th birthday last June but usually feel like a 16 year old! (Anyone know where I can get a 16 year old?)
I was a lead guitarist in a group back in England in the early 60s playing Buddy Holly, Chuck Berry, Roy Orbison and Elvis plus all the other stuff. I made it through the Holly inspired British rock n roll era until Jimi Hendrix came on the scene playing scales I couldn't even pronounce let alone play! (Pentatonic, Lydian, Mixolydian, Aeolian, Locrian, Dorian etc.). At that point me and my 57 Telecaster and 59 Stratocaster decided to call it a day!
I will start this off with my last post on a previous forum:
Originally Posted by Stuart14
Strat, do you like USD:CHF going lower longer term?
Feb 20th as reversal day, with stops above the high?
Entry below the low of the day before?
USDCHF:
Both technically and fundamentally, USDCHF is looking for direction from EURUSD.
Here is what we know technically:
Weekly:
In a corrective up move within the larger, dominant down move. This correction is now losing momentum having been rejected by Fib resistance.
The 20 continues to move in parallel above the 50 telling us to expect higher prices.
Daily:
We have a swing top in place on Feb 20 and now in a down cycle. Prices are in a corrective up cycle within the down cycle trying to re - test the swing high, however, momentum is non - existent. Again, the swing high is at final Fib resistance.
The 20 is above the 50 telling us to expect higher prices but they are converging.
There is major support at 1.1400 which, so far, is being successful in rejecting the downward attack.
What's next?
Who knows? I certainly don't.
A possible scenario is that when both the Weekly and Daily down cycles are in harmony, we may see a retrace down to their respective 38.2% Fib retracements before making a push to newer highs.
Now throw in a splash of funny mentals which are saying "we are in a world financial crisis, what shall I do with my money?" The answer, by the majority of actions, is to go to cash. "But which currency I hear you say?" GBP is teetering on the edge of the cliff with EUR a couple of steps behind. JPY is being whored by BOJ and CHF, although backed by gold, is being overlooked by the big boys so what is left? Well Japan and China are buying US$ which is still the World currency and backed by the World's largest economy (printing press) so that's the situation right now.
So how to trade USDCHF? - don't (at least not until we have clear direction).
Most currencies are in some sort of daily consolidation/ranging phase right now which is when the Pros put their hands on their wallets and the novices/amateurs use theirs like monopoly money.
Wait for the right opportunity - it is already being set up somewhere - our job is to find out where, when and which one, but it is there.
Me, I'm taking the strings off my 59 Strat to see why they are rattling on the frets so I think I'll give her a good going over.
Rock n Roll,
Strat
Langgan:
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