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Khamis, 25 Mac 2010
Tentang Swing Highs and Lows dr Mr Strat FF
Dave, many people get swings wrong because they are not using CONFIRMED swings. Unless a swing is CONFIRMED it is not valid and is about as much use as a crack in a glass eye!
To answer your questions:
“”I see three possibilities for confirmation here;
1) Marked candle has a higher high and has closed lower than the previous bullish bar or,
2) Price breaks below the marked bar's low or,
3) Price breaks below the last bullish bar's low since the swing high””.
Unless my eyesight is failing me, Dave, your 1) statement is incorrect because (i) it is neither lower or (ii) closed lower than the prior bar.
At the end of that week that your marked candle closed, it was an UNCONFIRMED swing high.
For confirmation of a swing, the OPPOSITE end of the candle must be taken out (exceeded). So, for a CONFIRMED swing high, the highest candle must have its LOW taken out and Vicky Verka for a CONFIRMED swing low.
Therefore, your marked candle is CONFIRMED as a swing high the following week when it’s LOW is taken out.
See also attached examples
“”Should you wait until the swing high is confirmed on the weekly chart before you look for a shooting star or other entry candle on the daily chart?””
Remember that although the higher time frames determine the direction of the lower time frames, they lag at turning points. This is because the lower time frames are faster and therefore respond faster.
If you do what you suggest above then you are trading the BOSS chart and not the Worker.
When you see a classic shooting star at resistance as you show in your EURAUD Worker chart with a bearish BOSS then, providing everything else is equal and you are not trading into an immediate area of strong support, you would place a sell order below the low of the Worker shooting star.
“”Would this SS be considered a bond candle because there had not been confirmation yet, therefore would have been a low probability trade? Or would this have appeared to be a likely winner at the time because it appeared near a resistance area and worth trying to get in before confirmation by the weekly?””
Maybe you need to read again what happened to my mate Bond – he thought he had pulled a gorgeous chick but when he got down to the nitty gritty, he found the meat and two veg – in other words, a “she male”. So, a Bond candle is something it is not and is trying to “fool” you.
It can be a correctly proportioned candle but nowhere near S&R or, it can be an incorrectly proportioned candle at S&R or any combination of both.
In your example, the shooting star is correctly proportioned, the open of the candle was at resistance, the close was not only below the prior candle but also within the body of the candle before that. The wick of the shooting star is also rejected by resistance. As if that wasn’t enough, the shooting star was also a BEOB! This was a trade to die for!
Don’t get confused with how to use the BOSS to trade the Worker. The BOSS gives us our direction and sentiment – the Worker gives us our timing. When you see the BOSS signaling an opportunity, start looking at the Worker for PASR to trade in the direction of the BOSS.
Also, don’t waste your time looking at Worker pairs when their BOSS is not signaling an opportunity – this is a sure way to losing trades.
If you are still confused, ask more questions – we’ll get you there!
To answer your questions:
“”I see three possibilities for confirmation here;
1) Marked candle has a higher high and has closed lower than the previous bullish bar or,
2) Price breaks below the marked bar's low or,
3) Price breaks below the last bullish bar's low since the swing high””.
Unless my eyesight is failing me, Dave, your 1) statement is incorrect because (i) it is neither lower or (ii) closed lower than the prior bar.
At the end of that week that your marked candle closed, it was an UNCONFIRMED swing high.
For confirmation of a swing, the OPPOSITE end of the candle must be taken out (exceeded). So, for a CONFIRMED swing high, the highest candle must have its LOW taken out and Vicky Verka for a CONFIRMED swing low.
Therefore, your marked candle is CONFIRMED as a swing high the following week when it’s LOW is taken out.
See also attached examples
“”Should you wait until the swing high is confirmed on the weekly chart before you look for a shooting star or other entry candle on the daily chart?””
Remember that although the higher time frames determine the direction of the lower time frames, they lag at turning points. This is because the lower time frames are faster and therefore respond faster.
If you do what you suggest above then you are trading the BOSS chart and not the Worker.
When you see a classic shooting star at resistance as you show in your EURAUD Worker chart with a bearish BOSS then, providing everything else is equal and you are not trading into an immediate area of strong support, you would place a sell order below the low of the Worker shooting star.
“”Would this SS be considered a bond candle because there had not been confirmation yet, therefore would have been a low probability trade? Or would this have appeared to be a likely winner at the time because it appeared near a resistance area and worth trying to get in before confirmation by the weekly?””
Maybe you need to read again what happened to my mate Bond – he thought he had pulled a gorgeous chick but when he got down to the nitty gritty, he found the meat and two veg – in other words, a “she male”. So, a Bond candle is something it is not and is trying to “fool” you.
It can be a correctly proportioned candle but nowhere near S&R or, it can be an incorrectly proportioned candle at S&R or any combination of both.
In your example, the shooting star is correctly proportioned, the open of the candle was at resistance, the close was not only below the prior candle but also within the body of the candle before that. The wick of the shooting star is also rejected by resistance. As if that wasn’t enough, the shooting star was also a BEOB! This was a trade to die for!
Don’t get confused with how to use the BOSS to trade the Worker. The BOSS gives us our direction and sentiment – the Worker gives us our timing. When you see the BOSS signaling an opportunity, start looking at the Worker for PASR to trade in the direction of the BOSS.
Also, don’t waste your time looking at Worker pairs when their BOSS is not signaling an opportunity – this is a sure way to losing trades.
If you are still confused, ask more questions – we’ll get you there!
Tentang LOT Size
Another of my posts:
Hey Spitfire,
I hope I'm not flogging a dead horse but from my post #1532 I wrote about how reducing my lot size from $10/pip to $1/pip removed my fear of losing.
It's those gremlins, demons, inside all of us that want us to make a killing to better our standard of living. By following the gremlins and demons we trade $10/pip hoping to get $1000 from a 100 pip move. Unless we have a $50,000+ account, this is way too much for our "real and logical" emotions to handle when the trade turns into a 40 or 50 pip loss.
We have to fight those gremlins and demons and not let them interfere with our logical and "real world" thinking. As others have said, drop down to a $/pip level that is comfortable for you to accept WHEN YOU LOSE. The trick is to base it on LOSING and not WINNING. Forget about thinking how much you will win and instead focus on how much you will lose. Doing this controls your losses and you will find the winners just take care of themselves.
I was told this a long time ago and rejected it - it's taken me 9 or so years (and many $thousands lost) to finally realise and accept this and put it into practice. After doing this, I was finally able to treat my trading as a business - some you win, some you lose and after a loser, just quietly move on to the next trade.
Also, with a lower $/pip, you can put on multiple trades. Bank a third after say 20 pips and move the rest to break-even. This way you make 20 pips no matter what the rest do. If all goes well, bank another third after say 50 pips and then trail the final third.
Don't be an idiot like me, Spitfire, and wait 9 or so years, DO IT NOW!
Hope this helps.
Rock n Roll,
Strat
Hey Spitfire,
I hope I'm not flogging a dead horse but from my post #1532 I wrote about how reducing my lot size from $10/pip to $1/pip removed my fear of losing.
It's those gremlins, demons, inside all of us that want us to make a killing to better our standard of living. By following the gremlins and demons we trade $10/pip hoping to get $1000 from a 100 pip move. Unless we have a $50,000+ account, this is way too much for our "real and logical" emotions to handle when the trade turns into a 40 or 50 pip loss.
We have to fight those gremlins and demons and not let them interfere with our logical and "real world" thinking. As others have said, drop down to a $/pip level that is comfortable for you to accept WHEN YOU LOSE. The trick is to base it on LOSING and not WINNING. Forget about thinking how much you will win and instead focus on how much you will lose. Doing this controls your losses and you will find the winners just take care of themselves.
I was told this a long time ago and rejected it - it's taken me 9 or so years (and many $thousands lost) to finally realise and accept this and put it into practice. After doing this, I was finally able to treat my trading as a business - some you win, some you lose and after a loser, just quietly move on to the next trade.
Also, with a lower $/pip, you can put on multiple trades. Bank a third after say 20 pips and move the rest to break-even. This way you make 20 pips no matter what the rest do. If all goes well, bank another third after say 50 pips and then trail the final third.
Don't be an idiot like me, Spitfire, and wait 9 or so years, DO IT NOW!
Hope this helps.
Rock n Roll,
Strat
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